I remain obsessed with the Democratic primary. Found this excellent site; his post Super Tuesday analysis is really smart.

The Field is a great site. Check out his analysis:


I think it’s a good night for Obama too; Clinton’s tough though. A knockout blow keeps seeming in Obama’s reach…and then he just can’t quite close. If he’d gotten California or New Jersey, she’d be dead in the water, I think…but it didn’t happen.

I actually don’t think it’s the case that a Clinton win powered by superdelegates will tear the party apart. It’s easy to forget when (like me) you wouldn’t vote for Clinton under any circumstances, but the vast majority of Democrats like both candidates. Clinton’s lead in the popular vote is very narrow, but it’s there at the moment, and she could make a strong (and I believe reasonable) argument that it gives her a mandate for the nomination even if she’s behind in earned delegates. Furthermore, whoever wins is going to get very strong support from the other candidate. I very much doubt there’ll be a shared ticket, but Obama would certainly campaign hard for Clinton, and vice versa.

I doubt Clinton will go negative in any serious way. It didn’t work well for her in South Carolina, and if anything lessons like that tend to make her overcompensate. (Her “any debate – any debate at all stance” at the moment being a case in point.)

Texas seems like a pretty large prize, and it seems like exactly the sort of state in which Clinton will do well. Another element in the mix may be that, with the Republican nomination over, independents may tend to vote Democratic, which might help Obama. (An insight from the Field again.)