UPDATE: The AFL-CIO had already confirmed the offer.
UPDATE 2:  Bad news for my prediction, though not good news for the GOP.

Political Animal links to a Greg Sargent bit. Supposedly, the AFL-CIO has told Arlen Specter they’ll back him in his next election if he votes for the Employee Free Choice Act. The idea is that he may jump parties and become a Democrat. My reflex judgment is, yes, he’ll change parties. I saw Bill O’Reilly on the Daily Show in November, and he was saying that basically his outlook was anarchist. These days you can go on national tv and say you’re an anarchist, and that’s better than saying you’re a Republican. And Specter has always struck me as somebody who jumps as survival dictates.

Here’s a clever piece of distancing, by Tom Wolfe in early 2006 (if I remember). He was asked about being a conservative. Wolfe said people know him for what he’s against, they don’t look on him as being in favor of anyone in particular. As I translated it: he wanted to say that, yes, he was still against limousine liberals, but he was not necessarily in favor of Republicans or conservatives. If that was the idea, I think it was a dodge but clever.  “Being against” really is a big part of Wolfe’s outlook, especially being against flossy, pretentious, trend-following would-be elite fops — damn liberals. On the other hand, come on, his beliefs are conservative and so are his loyalties; that’s why his latest book is on sale at Human Events Book Service, along with Ann Coulter and Bernard Goldberg.